Super Peso keeps surprising financial experts
MEXICO CITY- The Mexican peso started the week last Wednesday at its highest level since 2015, closing at 16.85 units per US dollar, a manifestation of...
The global economy has been recovering, even though projections for 2023 point to a slowing of growth rates compared to the previous year. Global inflation continued to decline, primarily as a result of lower pressures on food and energy prices and, in a lesser degree, due to a rather modest easing of its subordinate component. In this situation, central banks from various jurisdictions continued raising their reference rates even if there have been a few instances of monetary tightening pauses. Among the advanced economies, the Reserva Federal stands out since it has decided to maintain the target range for the federal fund levy at a level between 5.00 and 5.25 percent.
The global financial markets, on the other hand, have shown stable behavior in recent weeks after experiencing brief periods of volatility and uncertainty, which were partly caused by issues with some banking institutions in developed nations and discussions about the limit of the gubernatorial debt crisis in the United States. In this situation, the forecasts for the monetary policy in the major advanced economies showed adjustments to the upside in recent weeks in response to resilient economic and employment statistics on the one hand, and persistent inflation rates and a bank-specific central bank history that suggests high interest rates will remain in place for an extended period of time on the other. Global financial conditions have relaxed in the margin, on the other hand.
The national financial markets in Mexico displayed episodes of volatility in line with what was observed on a worldwide scale, even though they continue to be closely watched and in a healthy amount linked to external events. The Mexican peso kept displaying strength and maintaining an overall trend of appreciation. For their part, interest rates have exhibited a downward behavior. All of the gubernatorial interest rate troughs decreased, with the medium and long term troughs exhibiting the most agitated movements.
There continue to be worldwide risks to the financial system in this environment. On the one hand, the global economy's recovery process could be hampered by a slower-than-anticipated decline, and there is still a chance that inflationary pressures will increase, geopolitical tensions will worsen, or financial conditions will worsen. In addition to the aforementioned risks, there is also the possibility of systemic financial events occurring, which could have an impact on national markets. Internally, national economic activity continued to grow at a dynamic rate throughout the first quarter of 2023.
The future remains uncertain because there is still a risk of a greater weakening of economic activity as a result of the complex external environment, even though it is anticipated that domestic demand will continue to support national economic activity. Following recent approval by one of the major rating agencies, the credit-based soberana classification maintains the level of investment with a stable outlook.
The Mexican financial system as a whole continues to demonstrate resilience and, generally speaking, a stable position, in part because of a commercial bank that has capital and liquidity levels that comfortably exceed the minimum regulatory requirements. Regarding non-bank financial intermediaries, several institutions have experienced challenges brought on by the scarcity and encroachment of new sources of funding. Although it is possible that these difficulties could also apply to other financial intermediaries who are not banks, it is important to note that this sector only has a small amount of interaction with the national bank and other financial institutions, meaning that this situation does not pose a threat to the country's stability.
The Financial System Stability Advisory Council The outcomes of the Sistémico Risk Perception Survey were also examined by the Council. The findings imply that the external risk most frequently mentioned by financial intermediaries is the deterioration of global economic growth prospects, whereas the internal risk most frequently mentioned was the occurrence of higher-than-anticipated inflation. The increase in the market for shares risk stands out among the expectations of the key risks for the next six months. The Consejo also learned about the developments made by the Sustainable Finance Committee and approved the publication of the Annual Report in the ensuing weeks.